Brazil
Capital Brasília · Currency Brazilian Real (BRL) · Population 216.4M
Brazil's economy is supported by commodity exports and a resilient services sector. The BCB maintains a restrictive stance as fiscal uncertainty weighs on long-end yields and the real.
Economic momentum
Tight policy and fiscal concerns weigh on activity.
Market sentiment
Long-end yields elevated; equities lag global peers.
Country risk
Key macroeconomic indicators
GDP, USD trillions
AnnualCPI YoY, %
Last 6 monthsCurrency & central bank
- CurrencyBrazilian Real (BRL)
- USD/BRL5.42 +11.7%
- Central bankBanco Central do Brasil
- GovernorRoberto Campos Neto
- Policy stanceHawkish
- Next meetingJul 31, 2026
- Policy rate10.50%
Sovereign ratings
- S&PBB
- Moody'sBa2
- FitchBB
- Debt / GDP76%
- 10Y yield12.18%
Local stock market
| Index | Level | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa (IBOV) | 121,540 | -3.8% |
| Small Cap Index | 2,640 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate Index | 3,180 | +1.4% |
Bovespa under pressure as long-end rates back up; BRL weakens past 5.40; sovereign CDS widens.
Key economic sectors
| Sector | Share of GDP | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Services | 59% | Expanding |
| Industry | 21% | Stable |
| Agriculture | 7% | Expanding |
| Mining | 4% | Contracting |
| Energy | 9% | Stable |
Leading companies
| Company | Sector | Market cap |
|---|---|---|
| Petrobras | Energy | $95B |
| Vale | Mining | $60B |
| Itaú Unibanco | Banking | $58B |
| Ambev | Consumer | $42B |
| Banco do Brasil | Banking | $28B |
International trade profile
Latest economic news
- 2 hr agoValorMonetary PolicyCopom holds Selic, flags inflation risks
- 5 hr agoReutersFXReal weakens on renewed fiscal concerns
- 10 hr agoBloombergTradeSoybean exports to China hit record
Structured economic intelligence
AI-assisted events with explicit confidence. Not investment advice.
BCB hikes Selic by 25bp to 10.75% as inflation expectations drift
Copom delivers a surprise hike, citing de-anchoring of survey-based inflation expectations amid fiscal concerns.
S&P revises Brazil outlook to Negative on fiscal slippage
S&P keeps BB rating but flips outlook to Negative, citing widening primary deficit and rising debt trajectory.
Brazil soybean exports hit record on China demand surge
May soybean shipments reached an all-time monthly high, lifting the trade surplus and supporting the BRL.
Upcoming economic calendar
| Date | Time | Event | Forecast | Previous | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 02 | 11:00 UTC | Industrial Production (YoY) | 3.1% | 2.8% | ●● |
| Jul 09 | 11:00 UTC | IPCA Inflation (YoY) | 4.3% | 4.2% | ●●● |
| Jul 31 | 21:00 UTC | Copom Rate Decision | 10.50% | 10.50% | ●●● |
Key risks
AI-Assisted Assessment- Fiscal slippageHigh
Primary deficit drift unsettles long-end of curve.
- Inflation de-anchoringMedium
Survey-based expectations drift above target.
- Commodity rolloverMedium
Weaker iron ore prices erode terms-of-trade.
Key opportunities
AI-Assisted Assessment- Agribusiness exports6–12 months
Record soybean harvest lifts Asia-bound shipments.
- Energy transition metals24–36 months
Lithium and nickel projects scale into 2027.
Twelve-month economic trend
- Jul 25Monetary
BCB delivers final Selic cut of cycle
- Oct 25Fiscal
Fiscal framework debate intensifies
- Dec 25FX
BRL weakens past 5.30 vs USD
- Feb 26Monetary
BCB pauses at 10.50%
- Apr 26Inflation
IPCA expectations drift higher
- Jun 26Monetary
BCB tone turns more hawkish