Country Risk Methodology
How the platform constructs internal country-risk scores: twelve risk dimensions, confidence calculation, and how facts differ from AI-assisted assessments.
Prototype Notice. This prototype uses mock data and illustrative risk scores. The values do not represent live sovereign-risk assessments. Internal scores are not credit ratings and must not be used as investment recommendations.
What the Overall Risk Score means
The Overall Risk Score is a weighted blend of twelve dimension scores. It expresses the platform's structured view of the relative vulnerability of a country to economic, fiscal, political, financial and institutional stress.
Higher scores mean higher risk. Scoring direction is consistent across all dimensions and all countries.
The twelve risk dimensions
- Fiscal RiskSupporting indicators
- Sovereign Debt RiskSupporting indicators
- Currency RiskSupporting indicators
- Political RiskSupporting indicators
- Institutional RiskSupporting indicators
- Banking-System RiskSupporting indicators
- External Financing RiskSupporting indicators
- Regulatory RiskSupporting indicators
- Social Stability RiskSupporting indicators
- Commodity Exposure RiskSupporting indicators
- Trade Dependency RiskSupporting indicators
- Geopolitical RiskSupporting indicators
Each dimension aggregates multiple indicators: fiscal flow/stock variables, FX volatility and reserves, institutional indices, banking-sector aggregates, and trade and commodity exposure.
How recent events affect scores
Verified releases and structured Economic Intelligence Events feed the relevant dimensions. A rate decision can move Currency Risk; a rating action moves Sovereign Debt Risk; a budget release moves Fiscal Risk.
Each event displays the previous score, the updated score, and the dimension affected, so users can trace why a score moved.
Confidence and uncertainty
Confidence reflects evidence quality, coverage of supporting indicators, and recency. Low confidence is shown explicitly. The platform also surfaces a "Main Uncertainty" for each score so the limits of the view are visible.
Official releases — deficit prints, rating actions, FX reserves, policy rates. Sourced and dated.
Synthesized interpretation of evidence with explicit confidence and uncertainty. Not investment advice. Never presented as a credit rating.
Credit ratings vs platform scores
Official credit ratings (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) are displayed alongside platform scores but remain editorially separate. The platform's internal score is not issued by a credit-rating agency and does not constitute a rating.
See each country profile for ratings, outlooks, and most recent rating actions. Back to Country Risk.