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Currency Profile · Free Float · Prototype

🇧🇷 Brazilian Real (BRL)

Brazil · Central bank: Banco Central do Brasil · Symbol: R$

Risk: Moderate· 52/100
Issuing Economy — Live DataWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
Current Account / GDP
-2.0%
2028 · imf
FX Reserves
$358.5B
2025 · world_bank
GDP Growth
+2.4%
2028 · imf
CPI Inflation
3.0%
2028 · imf

Exchange Rate Overview Prototype — FX feed not connected

BRL per 1 USD
5.46
-0.55%Today (Mock)
5Y range: 4.05 – 5.85
Volatility: Elevated
1D
-0.55%
1W
-1.10%
1M
-1.90%
YTD
-4.20%
1Y
-3.10%
5Y range
4.05 – 5.85

Currency Chart

1D1W1M3MYTD1Y5Y
Mock illustrative series. Not investment advice.

Main Currency Drivers

Interest-rate differential
Very high
Selic 10.75% supports carry.
Inflation
4.3% IPCA
Above target ceiling band.
Trade balance
Goods surplus
Commodities exports support BRL.
Capital flows
Volatile
Sensitive to fiscal headlines.
Commodity exposure
Iron ore, soy, oil
BRL highly correlated to commodity cycle.
Political risk
Elevated
Fiscal-rule credibility under scrutiny.
Central-bank credibility
High but tested
Tightening to defend mandate.
Foreign reserves
$355B
Strong buffer; FX-swap programme active.

Central Bank Policy

Open central bank
Current Rate
10.75%
Previous
10.50%
Last Decision
Hiked Selic by 25 bp
Next Meeting
In ~35 days
Inflation Target
3.0% ±1.5%
Current Inflation
4.3%
Stance
Tightening
Guidance
Further hikes if inflation expectations deteriorate.

Reserve Position

FX Reserves
$355B
Months of Imports
~16 months
Reserve Trend
Stable
External Debt
~38% of GDP
Current Account
-1.5% of GDP
Reserve Adequacy
High

Trade Exposure

Main Export Currencies
USDCNYEUR
Main Import Currencies
USDCNYEURARS
Main Trade Partners
ChinaUnited StatesArgentinaEuro Area
Commodity sensitivity: Very high (iron ore, soy, crude).
Currency exposure by sector
  • Mining: USD revenue benefits when BRL weakens.
  • Agribusiness: BRL drives competitiveness vs USD producers.
  • Banks: High rates support net interest margins.

Market Reaction · Economic Intelligence Event

BCB Selic hike
Open analysis
Currency reaction
BRL -0.40%
Bond reaction
10Y NTN-B +12 bp
Equity reaction
Ibovespa -0.80%
Main affected sectors: Banks · Retailers · Real-estate developers
Confidence: High

Historical Currency Trend (12 months)

  1. BCB starts easing cycle
    -11M · Rate Decision
    Impact: BRL stable
  2. Fiscal framework debate
    -9M · Political Event
    Impact: BRL -1.2%
  3. Outlook revision to negative
    -7M · Rating Action
    Impact: BRL -0.8%
  4. IPCA above forecasts
    -5M · Inflation Surprise
    Impact: BRL -0.4%
  5. Iron-ore price drop
    -3M · Trade Shock
    Impact: BRL -0.6%
  6. BCB hikes Selic +25 bp
    -1M · Rate Decision
    Impact: BRL -0.4%

AI-Assisted Currency Assessment

AI-Assisted · Not Investment Advice
Main positive driver
Highest real rate in major EM.
Main negative driver
Fiscal-credibility concerns dominate flows.
Main upcoming event
Next Copom meeting and fiscal-rule update.
Main risk
Further deterioration of fiscal anchors.
Main uncertainty
Commodity-cycle and China demand outlook.
Confidence
Moderate