Prototype

🇧🇷 Brazil

Latin America · Commodity-led exporter · structural goods surplus

Full

Total exports

$340B

Total imports

$240B

Trade balance

$95B

Exports / GDP

19%

Largest partner

China

Supply-chain risk

Moderate

Trade & Global Position Brief

AI-Assisted Trade Assessment · separated from verified data

Brazil's trade profile is dominated by commodity exports — iron ore, soybeans, crude oil and meats — primarily destined for China. The country runs a substantial goods surplus partially offset by a services deficit. Mercosur anchors the regional trade base, while bilateral relations with China and the US shape macro flows.

Goods surplus +$120BChina share of exports ~31%Iron ore and soy >30% of exports

Confidence: High (75/100) · Uncertainty: China industrial demand cycle and FX volatility.

Trade balance

Verified mock data · monthly and annual

Goods balance

$120B

Services balance

−$25B

Exports trend

▲ $340B

Imports trend

▲ $240B

Monthly balance (last 12 months)

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Annual balance

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Main exports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main destination	Trend	Main companies	Exposure	Risk
Iron ore	$48B	14.1%	China	flat	Vale	Commodity	Elevated
Soybeans	$60B	17.6%	China	up	JBS-linked traders, Cargill BR	Agri commodity	Moderate
Crude oil	$45B	13.2%	China	up	Petrobras	Energy commodity	Moderate
Meat (beef & poultry)	$22B	6.5%	China	up	JBS, BRF	Agri	Moderate
Sugar & ethanol	$18B	5.3%	India	up	Raízen	Commodity	Moderate
Aircraft & machinery	$14B	4.1%	United States	flat	Embraer	Industrials	Low

Main imports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main origin	Dependency	Domestic alternatives	Affected sectors	Risk
Refined fuels	$32B	13.3%	United States	High	Constrained refining capacity	Transport	Moderate
Fertilizers	$18B	7.5%	Russia	Critical	Very limited	Agriculture	High
Electronics & semiconductors	$22B	9.2%	China	High	Limited	Technology	Elevated
Machinery	$30B	12.5%	China	High	Partial	Industrials	Moderate
Pharmaceuticals	$12B	5%	EU	Moderate	Growing local capacity	Healthcare	Low
Natural gas	$8B	3.3%	Bolivia	High	Pre-salt gas in development	Energy	Moderate

Trade partners

Ranked bilateral relationships · mock prototype

Partner	Annual	Main goods / services	Balance	Trend	Importance	Dependency	Risk
🇨🇳 China	$160B	Iron ore, soybeans, crude	$55B	up	Strategic	High	Moderate
🇺🇸 United States	$80B	Oil, steel, aircraft	−$12B	flat	Strategic	Moderate	Low
🇦🇷 Argentina	$31B	Vehicles, machinery	$8B	up	High	Moderate	Moderate
🇪🇺 European Union	$95B	Agri, machinery	$10B	up	Strategic	Moderate	Low
🇧🇷 🇷🇺 Russia	$18B	Fertilizers	−$16B	flat	High	Critical	Elevated
🇯🇵 Japan	$12B	Iron ore, agri	$4B	flat	Moderate	Moderate	Low

Trade network map

Country-centered schematic of major export destinations and import origins

🇨🇳 China

Export

Annual

$122B

Corridor

Pacific maritime

🇺🇸 United States

Export

Annual

$42B

Corridor

Atlantic maritime

🇦🇷 Argentina

Export

Annual

$31B

Corridor

Mercosur overland

🇪🇺 European Union

Export

Annual

$55B

Corridor

Atlantic maritime

🇷🇺 Russia

Import

Annual

Higher score = higher risk · mock prototype

Shipping Route Dependence

High

Score 62/100Trend: up

Driver: Red Sea reroutes lengthen Asia–Europe transit times.

Stabilizer: Diversified Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes.

Port Congestion

Elevated

Score 60/100Trend: flat

Driver: Selective congestion at Singapore and Mediterranean hubs.

Stabilizer: Investment in port capacity across the Gulf.

Import Concentration

Elevated

Score 67/100Trend: up

Driver: Heavy reliance on a small set of suppliers for electronics inputs.

Stabilizer: Active supplier diversification by major OEMs.

Supplier Concentration

Elevated

Score 62/100Trend: up

Driver: Concentration in critical minerals and chemicals.

Stabilizer: Strategic stockpiles in advanced economies.

Energy Dependence

High

Score 72/100Trend: flat

Driver: Hydrocarbon imports concentrated by region.

Stabilizer: Renewables build-out and LNG diversification.

Semiconductor Dependence

Critical

Score 72/100Trend: up

Driver: Advanced-node manufacturing concentrated in East Asia.

Stabilizer: US, EU and India fab investments.

Food Import Dependence

Elevated

Score 57/100Trend: flat

Driver: Several regions structurally reliant on grain imports.

Stabilizer: Diversified supplier base post-Ukraine.

Critical Mineral Dependence

High

Score 80/100Trend: up

Driver: Lithium, cobalt and rare-earths concentration.

Stabilizer: New mining projects in Latin America and Africa.

Geopolitical Exposure

High

Score 70/100Trend: up

Driver: Tariff escalation and sanctions regimes.

Stabilizer: Plurilateral coordination among G7 economies.

Currency Exposure

Moderate

Score 52/100Trend: flat

Driver: USD funding stress in select EMs.

Stabilizer: Deeper FX reserves at major EMs.

Trade Restriction Risk

Elevated

Score 52/100Trend: up

Driver: Rising export controls on tech and critical inputs.

Stabilizer: Negotiated carve-outs for allies.

Logistics Infrastructure

Moderate

Score 47/100Trend: down

Driver: Capacity adds at major Gulf and Asian ports.

Stabilizer: Multi-modal investments in NA and EU.

Commodity exposure

Commodity	Export exp.	Import exp.	Fiscal dep.	FX sensitivity	Affected sectors	Risk
Oil	High	High	High	High	Energy, Transport	Elevated
Natural Gas	Moderate	High	Moderate	Moderate	Utilities, Industry	Elevated
Coal	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Power, Steel	Moderate
Gold	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Moderate	Jewelry, Reserves	Low
Copper	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Construction, EVs	Elevated
Iron Ore	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Steel	Moderate
Lithium	High	High	Low	Low	Batteries, EVs	High
Agricultural Commodities	High	High	Moderate	Moderate	Food, Agribusiness	Moderate
Food Imports	Low	High	Moderate	High	Retail, Households	Elevated
Fertilizers	Moderate	High	Low	Moderate	Agriculture	Elevated

Foreign investment

Inward, outward and net FDI · mock prototype

Inward FDI

$65B

Outward FDI

$22B

Net FDI

$43B

Main investor countries

🇺🇸 United States26%
🇳🇱 Netherlands14%
🇪🇸 Spain11%
🇨🇳 China9%

Main destination sectors

Oil & Gas24%
Financial Services18%
Electricity & Renewables16%
Mining11%

Verified · Strategic projects

BYD EV plant in Bahia · Equinor pre-salt expansion · Nordex wind portfolio

Verified · Regulatory environment

Generally open; environmental licensing remains the key bottleneck.

AI-Assisted · Main opportunity

Energy transition, mining (lithium, copper), agri tech.

AI-Assisted · Main concern

Currency volatility and fiscal cycles.

Trade-related companies

Connected via the Companies & Sectors system

Company	Ticker	Sector	Trade role	Export exp.	Import exp.	Importance	Risk
Petrobras	PETR4	Energy	Crude exporter / refined importer	Critical	High	92	Moderate	Open →
Vale	VALE3	Materials	Iron ore exporter	Critical	Low	88	Moderate
JBS	JBSS3	Consumer Staples	Meat exporter	High	Moderate	78	Moderate
Embraer	EMBR3	Industrials	Aircraft exporter	Critical	High	70	Low

Trade-related sectors

Sector	Export share	Import dep.	Balance	Employment	FX sens.	Comm. sens.	Main partner	Risk / opportunity
Energy	13%	Moderate	$13B	High	High	High	China	Oil-price cycles / Pre-salt expansion
Materials	18%	Low	$50B	High	High	High	China	China steel demand / Critical minerals
Consumer Staples (Agri)	26%	High	$65B	High	High	High	China	Fertilizer imports / Premium food exports

Trade intelligence events

Verified facts, observed market reaction and AI-assisted assessment kept separate

Major export contract

Brazil sets record soybean export month to China

2026-05-22 · Confidence: Medium

Verified · Verified facts

May exports >15Mt · Average price firm vs YoY · Bunge and Cargill terminals operating at capacity

Verified · Observed market reaction

Vale and JBS-linked names firm · BRL strengthens vs USD

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

Strong cycle supported by Chinese stockpiling; risk of normalization in 2H.

Sectors: Agriculture, Logistics

Companies: JBS, Bunge BR

FX: BRL supported

Country risk: Supportive for external accounts

Trade: Goods surplus expands

Open analysis

Supply-chain relocation

Brazil diversifies fertilizer supply away from Russia

2026-04-12 · Confidence: Medium

Verified · Verified facts

New offtake deals with Morocco and Canada · Domestic potash project gets license · Imports from Russia down to 22%

Verified · Observed market reaction

Agri equities mixed · BRL stable

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

Gradual but meaningful reduction in supplier concentration risk.

Sectors: Agriculture

Companies: Nutrien (suppliers), Petrobras (urea)

FX: Neutral

Country risk: Improves supply-chain resilience

Trade: Reduces dependency on a single supplier

Open analysis

Trade risk profile

Internal platform view · mock prototype

Export concentration risk

Elevated

Score 68/100Trend: flat

Driver: Commodity-heavy export mix

Stabilizer: Multiple commodity baskets

Import dependency risk

Elevated

Score 60/100Trend: down

Driver: Fertilizers and refined fuels

Stabilizer: Diversification programs

Partner concentration risk

High

Score 72/100Trend: up

Driver: China share of exports ~31%

Stabilizer: Active EU and Asia diversification

Commodity exposure risk

High

Score 80/100Trend: flat

Driver: Iron ore, soy, oil concentration

Stabilizer: Diversified commodity mix

Shipping-route risk

Low

Score 35/100Trend: flat

Driver: Atlantic routes relatively stable

Stabilizer: Multi-port capacity

Sanctions risk

Low

Score 30/100Trend: flat

Driver: Non-aligned stance

Stabilizer: Active diplomatic engagement

Currency risk

High

Score 70/100Trend: flat

Driver: BRL volatility vs USD

Stabilizer: FX reserves and high real rates

Geopolitical risk

Moderate

Score 38/100Trend: flat

Driver: Limited bilateral conflicts

Stabilizer: Multilateral engagement

Logistics risk

Elevated

Score 55/100Trend: down

Driver: Port and rail bottlenecks

Stabilizer: Concessions program

Trade-policy risk

Moderate

Score 45/100Trend: flat

Driver: Mercosur common external tariff debates

Stabilizer: Stable multilateral stance

Trade opportunities

Forward-looking opportunities · not guarantees

EU–Mercosur ratification

12–24 months

Would unlock major agri and machinery export channels.

AgricultureIndustrials

Critical minerals

2–5 years

Lithium, copper and rare earths projects coming online.

Materials

Energy transition

3–7 years

Wind, solar and ethanol exports with green-fuel certifications.

Energy

Agri value-add

Ongoing

Higher-margin processed food and protein exports.

Agri

Twelve-month trade timeline

2026-06-05Trade dataMay trade balance: +$11B
2026-05-22CommoditiesRecord monthly soy export to China
2026-04-12Supply chainFertilizer diversification program
2026-03-08AgreementsEU–Mercosur progress report
2026-02-14InvestmentBYD Bahia EV plant first units
2026-01-30EnergyPre-salt block auction

What to watch

Monthly trade balance · first week each month
China commodity demand indicators
EU–Mercosur ratification status
BRL vs USD trajectory
Pre-salt licensing rounds
Fertilizer supplier diversification

Trade scenarios

Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case

12 months

Trigger: Steady China demand, stable BRL, Mercosur intact

Trade balance: Surplus stable around +$100B

Currency: BRL range-bound

Sectors: Commodities steady

Companies: Vale and Petrobras supported

Supply chain: Gradual fertilizer diversification

Confidence: Medium · Uncertainty: China cycle

Positive Scenario

12–24 months

Trigger: EU–Mercosur ratified, China demand firm, BRL stable

Trade balance: Surplus widens to +$130B

Currency: BRL firmer

Sectors: Agri and minerals outperform

Companies: Embraer and JBS gain

Supply chain: Stronger EU corridor

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: Ratification politics

Negative Scenario

6–12 months

Trigger: China industrial slowdown, commodity price drop, fiscal stress

Trade balance: Surplus narrows to +$60B

Currency: BRL weakens past 6/USD

Sectors: Materials underperform

Companies: Vale and Petrobras pressured

Supply chain: Slower investment cycle

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: China policy response

All values are illustrative Mock Data. Not customs, government or real-time data. Not investment, legal or trade-policy advice.