Prototype

🇮🇳 India

Asia-Pacific · Services-led exporter · structural goods deficit

Full

Total exports

$480B

Total imports

$740B

Trade balance

−$125B

Exports / GDP

22%

Largest partner

United States

Supply-chain risk

Elevated

Trade & Global Position Brief

AI-Assisted Trade Assessment · separated from verified data

India runs a wide goods deficit driven by crude oil and electronics imports, partially offset by a strong services surplus led by IT exports. The United States is the largest export market, while the UAE and Russia anchor the energy supply. Production-linked incentives are accelerating electronics and pharma exports.

Goods deficit −$290BServices surplus +$165BIT services exports >$200B

Confidence: Medium (74/100) · Uncertainty: Crude oil price trajectory and rupee path.

Trade balance

Verified mock data · monthly and annual

Goods balance

−$290B

Services balance

$165B

Exports trend

▲ $480B

Imports trend

▲ $740B

Monthly balance (last 12 months)

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Annual balance

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Main exports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main destination	Trend	Main companies	Exposure	Risk
IT & business services	$205B	42.7%	United States	up	TCS, Infosys, Wipro	Services	Low
Refined petroleum	$75B	15.6%	Singapore	up	Reliance Industries, Nayara	Energy	Moderate
Gems & jewellery	$38B	7.9%	UAE	flat	Titan	Consumer	Moderate
Pharmaceuticals	$27B	5.6%	United States	up	Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's	Healthcare	Low
Electronics (assembled)	$32B	6.7%	United States	up	Foxconn India, Tata Electronics	Manufacturing	Moderate
Engineering goods	$110B	22.9%	United States	up	L&T, Bharat Forge	Industrials	Moderate

Main imports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main origin	Dependency	Domestic alternatives	Affected sectors	Risk
Crude oil	$165B	22.3%	Russia	Critical	Very limited	Energy, Transport	High
Electronics & components	$95B	12.8%	China	High	Growing via PLI	Technology	Elevated
Gold	$45B	6.1%	Switzerland	High	Limited	Consumer, Reserves	Moderate
Coal	$38B	5.1%	Indonesia	High	Domestic coal	Power	Moderate
Machinery	$55B	7.4%	China	Moderate	Emerging	Industrials	Moderate
Fertilizers	$12B	1.6%	Russia	High	Limited	Agriculture	Elevated

Trade partners

Ranked bilateral relationships · mock prototype

Partner	Annual	Main goods / services	Balance	Trend	Importance	Dependency	Risk
🇺🇸 United States	$130B	IT services, pharma, gems	$48B	up	Strategic	Moderate	Low
🇮🇳 🇨🇳 China	$118B	Electronics, chemicals	−$85B	up	Strategic	High	Elevated
🇮🇳 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates	$85B	Crude oil, gold	−$22B	flat	Strategic	High	Moderate
🇮🇳 🇷🇺 Russia	$65B	Crude oil, fertilizers, defense	−$55B	up	High	High	Elevated
🇪🇺 European Union	$110B	Engineering, pharma, textiles	$12B	up	Strategic	Moderate	Low
🇮🇳 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	$48B	Crude oil	−$32B	flat	Strategic	High	Moderate

Trade network map

Country-centered schematic of major export destinations and import origins

🇺🇸 United States

Export

Annual

$130B

Corridor

Trans-Pacific & Atlantic

🇪🇺 European Union

Export

Annual

$110B

Corridor

Suez · maritime

🇦🇪 UAE

Import

Annual

$85B

Corridor

Persian Gulf

🇷🇺 Russia

Import

Annual

$65B

Corridor

Black Sea & overland

🇨🇳 China

Import

Annual

Higher score = higher risk · mock prototype

Shipping Route Dependence

High

Score 67/100Trend: up

Driver: Red Sea reroutes lengthen Asia–Europe transit times.

Stabilizer: Diversified Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes.

Port Congestion

Elevated

Score 64/100Trend: flat

Driver: Selective congestion at Singapore and Mediterranean hubs.

Stabilizer: Investment in port capacity across the Gulf.

Import Concentration

Elevated

Score 71/100Trend: up

Driver: Heavy reliance on a small set of suppliers for electronics inputs.

Stabilizer: Active supplier diversification by major OEMs.

Supplier Concentration

Elevated

Score 66/100Trend: up

Driver: Concentration in critical minerals and chemicals.

Stabilizer: Strategic stockpiles in advanced economies.

Energy Dependence

High

Score 65/100Trend: flat

Driver: Hydrocarbon imports concentrated by region.

Stabilizer: Renewables build-out and LNG diversification.

Semiconductor Dependence

Critical

Score 88/100Trend: up

Driver: Advanced-node manufacturing concentrated in East Asia.

Stabilizer: US, EU and India fab investments.

Food Import Dependence

Elevated

Score 61/100Trend: flat

Driver: Several regions structurally reliant on grain imports.

Stabilizer: Diversified supplier base post-Ukraine.

Critical Mineral Dependence

High

Score 84/100Trend: up

Driver: Lithium, cobalt and rare-earths concentration.

Stabilizer: New mining projects in Latin America and Africa.

Geopolitical Exposure

High

Score 63/100Trend: up

Driver: Tariff escalation and sanctions regimes.

Stabilizer: Plurilateral coordination among G7 economies.

Currency Exposure

Moderate

Score 56/100Trend: flat

Driver: USD funding stress in select EMs.

Stabilizer: Deeper FX reserves at major EMs.

Trade Restriction Risk

Elevated

Score 68/100Trend: up

Driver: Rising export controls on tech and critical inputs.

Stabilizer: Negotiated carve-outs for allies.

Logistics Infrastructure

Moderate

Score 51/100Trend: down

Driver: Capacity adds at major Gulf and Asian ports.

Stabilizer: Multi-modal investments in NA and EU.

Commodity exposure

Commodity	Export exp.	Import exp.	Fiscal dep.	FX sensitivity	Affected sectors	Risk
Oil	High	High	High	High	Energy, Transport	Elevated
Natural Gas	Moderate	High	Moderate	Moderate	Utilities, Industry	Elevated
Coal	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Power, Steel	Moderate
Gold	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Moderate	Jewelry, Reserves	Low
Copper	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Construction, EVs	Elevated
Iron Ore	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Steel	Moderate
Lithium	High	High	Low	Low	Batteries, EVs	High
Agricultural Commodities	High	High	Moderate	Moderate	Food, Agribusiness	Moderate
Food Imports	Low	High	Moderate	High	Retail, Households	Elevated
Fertilizers	Moderate	High	Low	Moderate	Agriculture	Elevated

Foreign investment

Inward, outward and net FDI · mock prototype

Inward FDI

$72B

Outward FDI

$18B

Net FDI

$54B

Main investor countries

🇺🇸 United States24%
🇸🇬 Singapore20%
🇲🇺 Mauritius12%
🇯🇵 Japan9%

Main destination sectors

Services28%
Computer Software18%
Manufacturing17%
Telecom8%

Verified · Strategic projects

Foxconn–Vedanta semiconductor JV · Tata–Apple iPhone assembly · Vande Bharat rail expansion

Verified · Regulatory environment

Streamlined approval routes for most sectors; security review in sensitive areas.

AI-Assisted · Main opportunity

Electronics manufacturing, semiconductors, renewables.

AI-Assisted · Main concern

Tax-policy reversals and state-level approvals.

Trade-related companies

Connected via the Companies & Sectors system

Company	Ticker	Sector	Trade role	Export exp.	Import exp.	Importance	Risk
Reliance Industries	RELIANCE	Energy	Refined fuels exporter / crude importer	High	Critical	92	Moderate	Open →
TCS	TCS	Technology	Services exporter	Critical	Low	88	Low
Infosys	INFY	Technology	Services exporter	Critical	Low	82	Low
Tata Steel	TATASTEEL	Materials	Steel exporter / coking-coal importer	High	High	70	Moderate

Trade-related sectors

Sector	Export share	Import dep.	Balance	Employment	FX sens.	Comm. sens.	Main partner	Risk / opportunity
Technology	43%	Low	$180B	High	Moderate	Low	United States	US visa policy and AI substitution / Generative AI services
Energy	16%	High	−$90B	High	High	High	Russia	Crude-price spikes / Refined-product exports
Pharma	6%	Moderate	$18B	High	Moderate	Low	United States	FDA compliance / Biosimilars and CDMO

Trade intelligence events

Verified facts, observed market reaction and AI-assisted assessment kept separate

Major export contract

India expands electronics PLI to cover laptops and tablets

2026-05-30 · Confidence: Medium

Verified · Verified facts

PLI extended for five years · Eligible outlay raised by 35% · New entrants include Tata Electronics

Verified · Observed market reaction

Nifty IT +0.6% · Tata Group equities +1.4% · INR steady

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

PLI extension deepens India's role in electronics assembly. Net trade impact positive over 12–24 months despite higher input imports.

Sectors: Electronics, Manufacturing

Companies: Tata Electronics, Foxconn

FX: Mild INR support medium-term

Country risk: Lower import dependency over time

Trade: Improves manufactured-goods exports

Open analysis

Trade agreement

India–UAE CEPA: bilateral trade up 25% since signing

2026-05-01 · Confidence: High

Verified · Verified facts

Bilateral trade above $85B · Gold and jewellery flows expanded · Logistics corridors deepened

Verified · Observed market reaction

Indian jewellery equities +0.8% · AED–INR stable

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

CEPA continues to deliver outsized growth in goods trade; services chapter gains traction.

Sectors: Consumer, Logistics

Companies: Titan, DP World India

FX: Neutral

Country risk: Lower partner concentration risk

Trade: Stronger Gulf trade lane

Open analysis

Trade risk profile

Internal platform view · mock prototype

Export concentration risk

Moderate

Score 45/100Trend: flat

Driver: Heavy reliance on services exports

Stabilizer: Diversification into manufacturing

Import dependency risk

High

Score 78/100Trend: up

Driver: Crude oil and electronics imports

Stabilizer: Domestic refining and PLI

Partner concentration risk

Moderate

Score 50/100Trend: flat

Driver: Concentration in US, EU and Gulf

Stabilizer: Active FTA agenda

Commodity exposure risk

High

Score 72/100Trend: up

Driver: Crude and gold imports

Stabilizer: Strategic petroleum reserves

Shipping-route risk

Elevated

Score 62/100Trend: up

Driver: Red Sea exposure

Stabilizer: Cape rerouting options

Sanctions risk

Moderate

Score 48/100Trend: flat

Driver: Russia oil purchases

Stabilizer: Price-cap compliance discussions

Currency risk

Elevated

Score 60/100Trend: flat

Driver: Goods deficit pressure on INR

Stabilizer: FX reserves >$650B

Geopolitical risk

Elevated

Score 55/100Trend: flat

Driver: Border tensions with China and Pakistan

Stabilizer: Active diplomatic engagement

Logistics risk

Elevated

Score 58/100Trend: down

Driver: Port congestion, last-mile gaps

Stabilizer: Gati Shakti investments

Trade-policy risk

Moderate

Score 50/100Trend: flat

Driver: Tariff revisions and quota tweaks

Stabilizer: Predictable PLI framework

Trade opportunities

Forward-looking opportunities · not guarantees

Electronics manufacturing

2–5 years

PLI-driven build-out of assembly and component ecosystems.

Electronics

IT services AI cycle

Ongoing

Generative-AI implementation services and platform engineering.

Technology

Energy refining hub

Ongoing

Refined-product exports leveraging crude flexibility.

Energy

EU and UK FTAs

12–24 months

Conclusion would unlock major market access for services and pharma.

PharmaServices

Twelve-month trade timeline

2026-06-10Trade dataMay goods trade release: deficit −$22B
2026-05-30PolicyElectronics PLI expansion
2026-05-01AgreementsIndia–UAE CEPA anniversary update
2026-03-15CommoditiesRussia crude imports record high
2026-02-08ShippingIndian ports clear backlog post Red Sea reroutes
2026-01-22InvestmentTata–Apple iPhone export milestone

What to watch

Monthly merchandise trade release
FTA negotiations with EU and UK
INR vs USD trajectory
Crude oil price moves
PLI scheme expansions
RBI FX reserves stance

Trade scenarios

Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case

12 months

Trigger: Stable crude, services momentum, FTA progress

Trade balance: Goods deficit stable around −$290B

Currency: INR gradual depreciation

Sectors: Services and pharma steady

Companies: IT majors stable, refiners positive

Supply chain: Gradual diversification away from China

Confidence: Medium · Uncertainty: Crude price

Positive Scenario

12–24 months

Trigger: Crude softens, EU FTA signed, PLI accelerates

Trade balance: Goods deficit narrows to −$240B

Currency: INR firmer vs USD

Sectors: Manufacturing accelerates

Companies: Electronics OEMs outperform

Supply chain: Electronics localization rises

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: FTA timelines

Negative Scenario

6–12 months

Trigger: Crude spike, sanctions tightening, INR pressure

Trade balance: Deficit widens to −$350B

Currency: INR weakens past 90/USD

Sectors: Energy importers squeezed

Companies: Aviation and FMCG margin pressure

Supply chain: Higher input costs

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: Geopolitical shock

All values are illustrative Mock Data. Not customs, government or real-time data. Not investment, legal or trade-policy advice.