Prototype

🇺🇸 United States

North America · Largest single-economy importer · services exporter

Full

Total exports

$2.05T

Total imports

$3.15T

Trade balance

−$890B

Exports / GDP

11%

Largest partner

Canada

Supply-chain risk

Elevated

Trade & Global Position Brief

AI-Assisted Trade Assessment · separated from verified data

The United States runs a structural goods deficit offset by a sizeable services surplus. Trade is heavily integrated with Canada and Mexico, while strategic competition with China continues to drive selective tariffs and export controls. Energy and aerospace remain core export strengths; consumer electronics and apparel are key import dependencies.

Goods deficit −$1.18TServices surplus +$290BUSMCA accounts for 30% of total trade

Confidence: High (78/100) · Uncertainty: Trajectory of US–China tariff regime and EV-supply-chain policy.

Trade balance

Verified mock data · monthly and annual

Goods balance

−$1.18T

Services balance

$290B

Exports trend

▲ $2.05T

Imports trend

▲ $3.15T

Monthly balance (last 12 months)

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Annual balance

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Main exports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main destination	Trend	Main companies	Exposure	Risk
Refined fuels & crude	$320B	15.6%	Mexico	up	ExxonMobil, Chevron	Energy commodity	Moderate
Aerospace	$145B	7.1%	EU	up	Boeing, RTX	Capital goods	Low
Semiconductors & equipment	$95B	4.6%	Taiwan	up	NVIDIA, Applied Materials	Technology	Elevated
Pharmaceuticals	$85B	4.1%	EU	flat	Pfizer, Merck	Healthcare	Low
Agricultural commodities	$175B	8.5%	China	flat	ADM, Cargill	Agriculture	Moderate
Financial & business services	$360B	17.6%	UK	up	JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs	Services	Low

Main imports

Product / service	Value	Share	Main origin	Dependency	Domestic alternatives	Affected sectors	Risk
Consumer electronics	$420B	13.3%	China	High	Limited near-term	Retail, Technology	Elevated
Autos & parts	$360B	11.4%	Mexico	High	Partial via USMCA	Autos	Moderate
Crude oil	$230B	7.3%	Canada	Moderate	Domestic shale	Energy	Low
Pharmaceuticals	$165B	5.2%	EU	Moderate	Strong domestic base	Healthcare	Low
Apparel	$115B	3.7%	Vietnam	High	Very limited	Retail	Moderate
Critical minerals	$45B	1.4%	China	Critical	Emerging	Batteries, Defense	High

Trade partners

Ranked bilateral relationships · mock prototype

Partner	Annual	Main goods / services	Balance	Trend	Importance	Dependency	Risk
🇨🇦 Canada	$800B	Autos, energy, machinery	−$45B	up	Strategic	High	Low
🇲🇽 Mexico	$780B	Autos, electronics, agri	−$160B	up	Strategic	High	Moderate
🇨🇳 China	$575B	Electronics, agri	−$310B	down	Strategic	High	Elevated
🇪🇺 European Union	$920B	Aerospace, pharma, services	−$180B	flat	Strategic	Moderate	Low
🇯🇵 Japan	$245B	Autos, machinery, energy	−$70B	up	High	Moderate	Low
🇬🇧 United Kingdom	$160B	Services, aerospace	$15B	up	High	Moderate	Low

Trade network map

Country-centered schematic of major export destinations and import origins

🇨🇦 Canada

Export

Annual

$800B

Corridor

USMCA northbound

🇲🇽 Mexico

Export

Annual

$780B

Corridor

USMCA southbound

🇨🇳 China

Import

Annual

$440B

Corridor

Trans-Pacific

🇪🇺 European Union

Import

Annual

$550B

Corridor

Trans-Atlantic

🇻🇳 Vietnam

Import

Annual

$130B

Corridor

Trans-Pacific

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

Import

Annual

$35B

Corridor

Gulf · maritime

Trade agreements

USMCA

Active

US · Canada · Mexico

Verified · Main sectors

Autos, agri, services, digital

Verified · Importance

Strategic

AI-Assisted · Main benefit

Integrated North American manufacturing

AI-Assisted · Main limitation

Periodic disputes on autos and labor

Bilateral FTAs

Active

Korea, Singapore, Israel, others

Verified · Main sectors

Goods and services

Verified · Importance

High

AI-Assisted · Main benefit

Tariff-free access in key markets

AI-Assisted · Main limitation

No multilateral coverage

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Under Review

13 IPEF partners

Verified · Main sectors

Supply chains, clean economy

Verified · Importance

Moderate

AI-Assisted · Main benefit

Rules-based engagement in Asia

AI-Assisted · Main limitation

No market-access pillar

Supply-chain position

Higher score = higher risk · mock prototype

Shipping Route Dependence

High

Score 64/100Trend: up

Driver: Red Sea reroutes lengthen Asia–Europe transit times.

Stabilizer: Diversified Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes.

Port Congestion

Elevated

Score 62/100Trend: flat

Driver: Selective congestion at Singapore and Mediterranean hubs.

Stabilizer: Investment in port capacity across the Gulf.

Import Concentration

Elevated

Score 69/100Trend: up

Driver: Heavy reliance on a small set of suppliers for electronics inputs.

Stabilizer: Active supplier diversification by major OEMs.

Supplier Concentration

Elevated

Score 52/100Trend: up

Driver: Concentration in critical minerals and chemicals.

Stabilizer: Strategic stockpiles in advanced economies.

Energy Dependence

High

Score 74/100Trend: flat

Driver: Hydrocarbon imports concentrated by region.

Stabilizer: Renewables build-out and LNG diversification.

Semiconductor Dependence

Critical

Score 86/100Trend: up

Driver: Advanced-node manufacturing concentrated in East Asia.

Stabilizer: US, EU and India fab investments.

Food Import Dependence

Elevated

Score 47/100Trend: flat

Driver: Several regions structurally reliant on grain imports.

Stabilizer: Diversified supplier base post-Ukraine.

Critical Mineral Dependence

High

Score 82/100Trend: up

Driver: Lithium, cobalt and rare-earths concentration.

Stabilizer: New mining projects in Latin America and Africa.

Geopolitical Exposure

High

Score 72/100Trend: up

Driver: Tariff escalation and sanctions regimes.

Stabilizer: Plurilateral coordination among G7 economies.

Currency Exposure

Moderate

Score 42/100Trend: flat

Driver: USD funding stress in select EMs.

Stabilizer: Deeper FX reserves at major EMs.

Trade Restriction Risk

Elevated

Score 66/100Trend: up

Driver: Rising export controls on tech and critical inputs.

Stabilizer: Negotiated carve-outs for allies.

Logistics Infrastructure

Moderate

Score 49/100Trend: down

Driver: Capacity adds at major Gulf and Asian ports.

Stabilizer: Multi-modal investments in NA and EU.

Commodity exposure

Commodity	Export exp.	Import exp.	Fiscal dep.	FX sensitivity	Affected sectors	Risk
Oil	High	High	High	High	Energy, Transport	Elevated
Natural Gas	Moderate	High	Moderate	Moderate	Utilities, Industry	Elevated
Coal	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Power, Steel	Moderate
Gold	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Moderate	Jewelry, Reserves	Low
Copper	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Construction, EVs	Elevated
Iron Ore	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Steel	Moderate
Lithium	High	High	Low	Low	Batteries, EVs	High
Agricultural Commodities	High	High	Moderate	Moderate	Food, Agribusiness	Moderate
Food Imports	Low	High	Moderate	High	Retail, Households	Elevated
Fertilizers	Moderate	High	Low	Moderate	Agriculture	Elevated

Foreign investment

Inward, outward and net FDI · mock prototype

Inward FDI

$380B

Outward FDI

$405B

Net FDI

−$25B

Main investor countries

🇯🇵 Japan22%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom14%
🇩🇪 Germany11%
🇨🇦 Canada10%

Main destination sectors

Manufacturing38%
Finance & Insurance19%
Information & Tech15%
Energy9%

Verified · Strategic projects

TSMC Arizona fab expansion · Hyundai Georgia EV plant · Intel Ohio fab

Verified · Regulatory environment

CFIUS scrutiny tightened for technology and critical infrastructure.

AI-Assisted · Main opportunity

Semiconductors, EV supply chain and data centers.

AI-Assisted · Main concern

Tighter inbound screening and reciprocal measures.

Trade-related companies

Connected via the Companies & Sectors system

Company	Ticker	Sector	Trade role	Export exp.	Import exp.	Importance	Risk
Apple	AAPL	Technology	Hardware importer / IP exporter	High	Critical	95	Elevated	Open →
Boeing	BA	Aerospace	Major aircraft exporter	Critical	High	88	Moderate
ExxonMobil	XOM	Energy	LNG & refined fuels exporter	High	Moderate	84	Moderate
Caterpillar	CAT	Industrials	Heavy equipment exporter	High	Moderate	76	Moderate

Trade-related sectors

Sector	Export share	Import dep.	Balance	Employment	FX sens.	Comm. sens.	Main partner	Risk / opportunity
Technology	12%	High	−$180B	High	Moderate	Low	China	Tariff and export-control exposure / AI hardware and software exports
Energy	15%	Moderate	$90B	Moderate	Moderate	High	Canada	Price volatility / LNG exports to Europe and Asia
Financial Services	18%	Low	$160B	High	Low	Low	United Kingdom	Regulatory fragmentation / Cross-border capital markets

Trade intelligence events

Verified facts, observed market reaction and AI-assisted assessment kept separate

Tariff change

United States raises tariffs on Chinese EVs and battery components

2026-05-14 · Confidence: Medium

Verified · Verified facts

Tariff rate increased to 100% on Chinese EVs · Effective date set to 2026-07-01 · Battery cells and key minerals also affected

Verified · Observed market reaction

S&P 500 autos sub-index −1.2% · Chinese ADRs in EV space down 5–7% · Lithium futures +3%

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

Tariff package signals durable strategic competition in EV value chains. Expect supply-chain relocation and price pressure on US consumers in the near term.

Sectors: Autos, Batteries, Mining

Companies: Tesla, Ford, BYD

FX: Mild USD strength vs CNY

Country risk: Trade-policy risk elevated

Trade: Goods deficit with China likely narrows

Open analysis

Trade agreement

USMCA review process launched ahead of 2026 sunset clause

2026-04-20 · Confidence: Medium

Verified · Verified facts

Joint review initiated · Autos rules of origin under focus · Labor enforcement chapter to be assessed

Verified · Observed market reaction

Mexican peso steady · Auto sector ETFs flat

AI-Assisted · AI-Assisted assessment

Review is procedural but politically charged; baseline expectation is renewal with targeted tweaks.

Sectors: Autos, Agriculture

Companies: GM, Ford, Stellantis

FX: Neutral

Country risk: Stable

Trade: Maintains tariff-free core trade

Open analysis

Trade risk profile

Internal platform view · mock prototype

Export concentration risk

Low

Score 35/100Trend: flat

Driver: Diversified export base

Stabilizer: Strong services exports

Import dependency risk

High

Score 70/100Trend: up

Driver: Electronics and critical minerals reliance

Stabilizer: Reshoring incentives via IRA & CHIPS

Partner concentration risk

Elevated

Score 55/100Trend: flat

Driver: Heavy dependence on USMCA partners

Stabilizer: Diverse export markets

Commodity exposure risk

Moderate

Score 45/100Trend: flat

Driver: Net energy exporter

Stabilizer: Domestic shale production

Shipping-route risk

Moderate

Score 50/100Trend: up

Driver: Pacific and Suez exposure

Stabilizer: Trans-Atlantic alternatives

Sanctions risk

Low

Score 30/100Trend: flat

Driver: Issuer of major sanctions regimes

Stabilizer: Allied coordination

Currency risk

Low

Score 25/100Trend: flat

Driver: USD reserve status

Stabilizer: Deep capital markets

Geopolitical risk

Elevated

Score 60/100Trend: up

Driver: US–China strategic competition

Stabilizer: Alliance network

Logistics risk

Moderate

Score 40/100Trend: flat

Driver: Aging infrastructure in some corridors

Stabilizer: IIJA investment

Trade-policy risk

Elevated

Score 65/100Trend: up

Driver: Tariff escalation cycles

Stabilizer: Bipartisan trade-tools framework

Trade opportunities

Forward-looking opportunities · not guarantees

LNG export expansion

2–5 years

Additional liquefaction capacity coming online to serve Europe and Asia.

Energy

Semiconductor reshoring

3–7 years

CHIPS Act-backed fab investments lift domestic value-add.

Technology

Services exports

Ongoing

Cross-border digital and financial services remain core surplus drivers.

FinancialsTechnology

Nearshoring

3–5 years

Mexico capacity build-out supports US import substitution from Asia.

Manufacturing

Twelve-month trade timeline

2026-06-15Trade dataMay goods trade release: deficit −$92B
2026-05-14TariffsEV tariff package finalized
2026-04-20AgreementsUSMCA review process launched
2026-03-02CommoditiesLNG export milestone: 14 Bcf/d
2026-02-10ShippingRed Sea reroutes extended
2026-01-25InvestmentTSMC Arizona Phase 2 announced

What to watch

Monthly trade release · third week each month
USMCA joint-review milestones
China retaliation scope on tariffs
Red Sea shipping conditions
Semiconductor export controls expansion
Treasury FDI screening rulemaking

Trade scenarios

Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case

12 months

Trigger: Targeted tariffs, gradual reshoring, stable services surplus

Trade balance: Deficit narrows modestly to ~−$1.05T

Currency: USD broadly stable

Sectors: Tech and energy lead exports

Companies: Mixed for autos, positive for energy

Supply chain: Gradual diversification away from China

Confidence: Medium · Uncertainty: Tariff cadence and Chinese response

Positive Scenario

12–18 months

Trigger: Faster reshoring, LNG demand strong, EU services demand

Trade balance: Goods deficit narrows to ~−$1.00T; services surplus expands

Currency: USD modestly stronger

Sectors: Manufacturing capex rises

Companies: Industrials and energy outperform

Supply chain: Stronger Mexico nearshoring

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: Capex execution risk

Negative Scenario

6–12 months

Trigger: Broad tariff retaliation, energy-price spike, Red Sea worsens

Trade balance: Deficit widens to −$1.25T

Currency: USD spikes on safe-haven flows

Sectors: Autos and consumer goods squeezed

Companies: Retail and EV margin pressure

Supply chain: Costs rise, lead times extend

Confidence: Low · Uncertainty: Geopolitical escalation

All values are illustrative Mock Data. Not customs, government or real-time data. Not investment, legal or trade-policy advice.