Prototype · Energy
Natural Gas (TTF benchmark)
Price €32.50/MWh · Volatility High · Supply risk High · Demand Stable
Prototype profile
Live Benchmark Price
$3.33
$/MMBtu (Henry Hub)
+2.1% vs prior period
2026-06-29 · fred
Price
€32.50/MWh
1D
+1.4%
1M
-5.1%
YTD
-10.2%
Volatility
High
Supply risk
High
Commodity Brief
AI-Assisted Commodity Assessment — separated from verified data.
European TTF eased on healthy storage and new LNG supply, but remains 3x pre-2021 norms. Asian JKM premium persists. Main risks are winter weather, Russian pipeline volumes and Mideast LNG flows.
Confidence: Medium (62) · Generated 2025-06-28
Evidence: EU storage levels; LNG cargo flows · Uncertainty: Cold winter
Price Performance
High: €36 (Jan)
Low: €29 (May)
Avg: €32
Volatility: High
Trend: Easing
Supply
Global production
4,180 bcm
Top producers
US, Russia, Iran, Qatar, China
Concentration
Top-5 = 55%
LNG capacity
470 mtpa
Spare capacity
Limited
Inventories (EU)
75% full
Disruptions
Eastern Europe pipelines
Infrastructure risk
Pipeline integrity
Demand
Global consumption
4,100 bcm
Top consumers
US, Russia, China, Iran, EU
Sectors
Power, Industry, Heating
Demand growth
+1.5% YoY
Substitution
Renewables, heat pumps
Seasonal
Winter heating peak
Transition relevance
Moderate (bridge fuel)
Trade Flows
Top exporters
US, Qatar, Russia, Australia
Top importers
EU, China, Japan, South Korea
Routes
LNG sea routes, EU pipelines
Pricing currency
EUR/USD
Shipping
LNG fleet ~700 vessels
Trade restrictions
EU phase-out of Russian gas
Sanctions exposure
Elevated
Country Exposure
Qatar
Major ExporterLong-term contracts
Germany
Major ImporterHighest EU exposure
Japan
Major Importer100% import
Sector Exposure
EnergyRevenue
Producers and midstream
UtilitiesCost
Gas-fired power
ManufacturingCost
Chemicals, fertilizer
AgricultureCost
Fertilizer feedstock
TransportationCost
LNG shipping
ConsumerCost
Heating bills
Company Exposure
Mock data — uses the existing Companies & Sectors system.
| Company | Country | Relationship | Revenue Exposure | Cost Exposure | Importance | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheniere Energy | United States | LNG export | Very High | Low | Strategic | Moderate | Companies |
| QatarEnergy | Qatar | LNG producer | Very High | Low | Strategic | Low | Companies |
| Shell | United Kingdom | LNG trader | High | Moderate | Strategic | Moderate | Companies |
| Petrobras | Brazil | LNG buyer | Low | High | Strategic | Moderate | Open company |
Commodity Intelligence Events
New US LNG export approval
2025-06-12 · Production decision
- Mock 12 mtpa Gulf Coast
Observed Market Reaction: TTF -2%, JKM -1.5%.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Eases medium-term supply outlook through 2027.
Confidence: Medium (62) · Construction
Pipeline outage Norway-UK
2025-05-18 · Supply disruption
- 3-day outage
Observed Market Reaction: TTF +6% intraday.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Short-term impact only; underscores route concentration.
Confidence: High (80) · Repair
Economic Impact
Inflation
Major driver of EU CPI swings
Currency
Importer currencies sensitive (EUR, JPY)
Trade Balance
US gains, EU pays
Government Revenue
Royalties for producers
Fiscal Balance
EU energy subsidies tail off
Consumer Spending
Household energy bills
Industrial Costs
Chemicals, fertilizer, steel
Sector Profitability
Energy-intensive industry margins
Company Margins
Asymmetric across value chain
Country Risk
EU industrial competitiveness
Commodity Risk Profile
Supply concentration
HighLNG export concentration
Geopolitical
HighRussia, Middle East
Transportation
ElevatedSea routes, pipelines
Inventory
ModerateEU storage healthy
Weather
ElevatedWinter sensitivity
Regulation
ModerateEU phase-out
Substitution
ModerateRenewables, heat pumps
Demand
ModerateIndustrial recovery
Currency
LowEUR/USD
Environmental policy
ModerateCarbon constraints
Commodity Scenarios
Scenario Analysis — Not a Price Forecast.
Base Case
Trigger: Normal winter, LNG additions
Price direction: €28–38
Countries: EU, US, Qatar
Sectors: Utilities
Companies: Cheniere, Shell
Inflation: Mild
Currency: EUR stable
Trade: EU deficit narrows
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Weather
Supply Shock Scenario
Trigger: Pipeline + LNG outage
Price direction: +60%
Countries: EU, Japan
Sectors: Chemicals
Companies: Industrials
Inflation: Sharp
Currency: EUR weak
Trade: Deficits widen
Horizon 3–6m · Confidence Medium · Outage duration
Demand Shock Scenario
Trigger: Mild winter + industrial slowdown
Price direction: -30%
Countries: US producers
Sectors: Upstream
Companies: EQT, Cheniere
Inflation: Disinflationary
Currency: Limited
Trade: Producer revenues fall
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Weather
Mock data for MVP. Not trading, investment, engineering or legal advice.