All countries
Compare Risk
Latin America · Emerging

Brazil — Country Risk

Elevated · 58/100 DeterioratingConfidence: HighS&P: BBPrototype profile
Overall risk
58/100
Higher score = higher risk
Mock Data — illustrative. Platform Risk Score is not an official credit rating.
Live Macro FundamentalsWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
Current Account / GDP
-2.0%
2028 · imf
Fiscal Balance / GDP
-6.2%
2028 · imf
GDP Growth
+2.4%
2028 · imf
Govt Debt / GDP
102.3%
2028 · imf
CPI Inflation
3.0%
2028 · imf
Unemployment
7.4%
2028 · imf
AI-Assisted Risk Assessment

Country Risk Brief

Brazil's overall risk is Elevated and rising. The main driver is fiscal: a persistent primary deficit and rigid mandatory spending strain the new fiscal framework. The stabilizing pillar is the credible BCB and large FX reserves. The most important recent change is an outlook revision to Negative by S&P, citing fiscal-execution risks.

Main driver: Persistent primary deficit and rising public-debt trajectoryStabilizing: Credible BCB inflation-targeting framework and ample reservesMain uncertainty: Whether the fiscal framework is respected through 2027.

Risk Score Breakdown

12 dimensions · 0–100
Fiscal Risk72/100 · High
Sovereign Debt Risk60/100 · Elevated
Currency Risk58/100 · Elevated
Political Risk54/100 · Elevated
Institutional Risk50/100 · Elevated
Banking-System Risk40/100 · Moderate
External Financing Risk46/100 · Moderate
Regulatory Risk56/100 · Elevated
Social Stability Risk52/100 · Elevated
Commodity Exposure Risk58/100 · Elevated
Trade Dependency Risk46/100 · Moderate
Geopolitical Risk38/100 · Moderate
Risk dimension
Fiscal Risk
Deteriorating
72/100
High
Main driver: Primary deficit drift and rigid expenditure
Stabilizing factor: Strong revenue collection capacity
Supporting indicators
  • Primary Balance-1.4% of GDP
  • Debt / GDP78%
  • Interest / GDP6.5%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Sovereign Debt Risk
Deteriorating
60/100
Elevated
Main driver: Short duration and high real yields
Stabilizing factor: Predominantly LCY debt with deep domestic base
Supporting indicators
  • Avg Maturity4 yrs
  • LCY Share96%
  • 10Y NTN-B Real Yield6.1%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Currency Risk
Improving
58/100
Elevated
Main driver: Commodity- and rates-sensitive BRL
Stabilizing factor: Large reserves and free-floating regime
Supporting indicators
  • BRL / USD5.42
  • Reserves$355B
  • FX Volatility (1m)12.4%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Political Risk
Deteriorating
54/100
Elevated
Main driver: Executive-legislative tensions on spending
Stabilizing factor: Stable democratic institutions
Supporting indicators
  • Policy ContinuityModerate
  • Reform MomentumMixed
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Institutional Risk
Stable
50/100
Elevated
Main driver: Bureaucratic and judicial friction
Stabilizing factor: Independent central bank with track record
Supporting indicators
  • Rule of Law (WGI)-0.1
  • Reg. Quality-0.2
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Banking-System Risk
Improving
40/100
Moderate
Main driver: High household indebtedness
Stabilizing factor: Well-capitalized and profitable banks
Supporting indicators
  • CET113.0%
  • NPL3.2%
  • Household Debt / Income48%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
External Financing Risk
Improving
46/100
Moderate
Main driver: Commodity-price dependence
Stabilizing factor: Twin commodity surplus and reserves
Supporting indicators
  • Current Account-1.5% of GDP
  • Reserves / Imports16 months
  • Trade Balance+$92B
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Regulatory Risk
Stable
56/100
Elevated
Main driver: Tax complexity and regulatory churn
Stabilizing factor: Tax-reform package advancing
Supporting indicators
  • Tax ReformAdvancing
  • Doing Business TrendImproving
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Social Stability Risk
Stable
52/100
Elevated
Main driver: Inequality and informal employment
Stabilizing factor: Bolsa Familia and social transfers
Supporting indicators
  • Unemployment7.5%
  • Gini0.52
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Commodity Exposure Risk
Stable
58/100
Elevated
Main driver: Iron ore and soy concentration
Stabilizing factor: Diversified commodity export base
Supporting indicators
  • Commodities / Exports~55%
  • Top BuyerChina 30%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Trade Dependency Risk
Stable
46/100
Moderate
Main driver: Commodity-buyer concentration (China)
Stabilizing factor: FTA expansion via Mercosur
Supporting indicators
  • Trade / GDP33%
  • China Share30%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Geopolitical Risk
Stable
38/100
Moderate
Main driver: Regional spillovers from Argentina/Venezuela
Stabilizing factor: Diplomatic non-alignment
Supporting indicators
  • Active DisputesLimited
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Verified Indicator

Fiscal Risk

Government Debt / GDP
78%
Budget Balance
-7.9% of GDP (nominal)
Interest Expense
6.5% of GDP
Avg Debt Maturity
4 years
Revenue Stability
High
Primary Balance
-1.4% of GDP
Fiscal Policy Direction
Mild loosening vs framework
Main Fiscal Concern
Rigid expenditure and indexation
Main Fiscal Strength
Strong tax-collection apparatus
Verified Indicator

Sovereign Debt Risk

Local-Currency Debt
BRL 7.1T
Foreign-Currency Debt
~4%
Debt-Service Burden
Elevated
Refinancing Risk
Moderate–High
Bond-Yield Trend
Real 10Y at 6.1%
Credit Rating
BB (S&P)
Rating Outlook
Negative (revised)
Recent Rating Action
Outlook revision, Jun 2026 (mock)
Verified Indicator

Currency Risk

Currency Volatility
12.4% (1m)
Reserve Adequacy
Strong
Current-Account Balance
-1.5% of GDP
External Debt
37% of GDP
Import Coverage
16 months
Capital-Flow Sensitivity
High
Currency Regime
Free Float
Central-Bank Credibility
High
Open currency profile →
Verified Indicator

Political Risk

Government Stability
Moderate
Election Risk
Low (mid-cycle)
Policy Continuity
Moderate
Social Tension
Moderate
Protest Risk
Moderate
Corruption Risk
Moderate–High
Geopolitical Exposure
Low
Institutional Strength
Moderate–High
Verified Indicator

Banking-System Risk

Capital Adequacy
CET1 13.0%
Non-Performing Loans
3.2%
Liquidity
Adequate
Credit Growth
+9% YoY
Property-Market Exposure
Moderate
Foreign-Currency Lending
Low
Government Support Capacity
Moderate
Systemic Risk
Moderate
Verified Indicator

External Risk

Current-Account Balance
-1.5% of GDP
Trade Balance
+$92B (surplus)
Foreign Reserves
$355B
External Debt
37% of GDP
Foreign Investment Flows
Volatile FPI; stable FDI
Commodity Dependence
High (iron ore, soy, oil)
Trade-Partner Concentration
China-heavy
Global Funding Sensitivity
High
Verified Indicator

Regulatory & Institutional Risk

Regulatory Predictability
Moderate
Rule of Law
Moderate
Contract Enforcement
Moderate
Policy Transparency
Improving
Business Environment
Mid-table
Capital Controls
Minimal
Foreign Ownership Restrictions
Sector-specific
Institutional Credibility
Moderate–High
Credit Ratings (Official)
S&PBBOutlook: NegativeOutlook revision · Jun 10, 2026
Moody'sBa2Outlook: StableAffirmation · Apr 28, 2026
FitchBBOutlook: StableAffirmation · Mar 14, 2026

Official Rating — separate from the Platform Risk Score above.

Risk Trend — Last 12 Months

  1. Soybean export surge supports trade balance
    Jun 26, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 48 46 (-2)
    Higher CNY inflows ease external pressure.
    Open Analysis →
  2. BCB hikes Selic by 50bp
    Jun 18, 2026
    Dimension: Currency Risk · 60 58 (-2)
    Hawkish surprise contains BRL depreciation.
    Open Analysis →
  3. S&P revises outlook to Negative
    Jun 10, 2026
    Dimension: Sovereign Debt Risk · 56 60 (+4)
    Cites fiscal-execution risk.
  4. Fiscal-framework noise
    Apr 22, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 65 68 (+3)
    Debate on spending exemptions raises risk premium.

Risk Events — Linked Intelligence Prototype examples

Brazil·Monetary PolicyPrototypeCritical

BCB hikes Selic by 25bp to 10.75% as inflation expectations drift

Jun 19, 2026 · 21:30 UTC
Fact (example)
Selic Rate:10.75%prev 10.50%· Banco Central do Brasil

Copom delivers a surprise hike, citing de-anchoring of survey-based inflation expectations amid fiscal concerns.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Positive
Markets
Negative
Country risk
Slightly Higher Risk
Market Reaction
BRL: -1.1% vs USD (BRL stronger)Bovespa: -1.3%
Confidence: 84% · High·3 sources·Updated Jun 28, 2026 · 14:00 UTCOpen Analysis
Brazil·Credit RatingPrototypeHigh

S&P revises Brazil outlook to Negative on fiscal slippage

Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Fact (example)
Sovereign Rating:BBprev BB· S&P Global

S&P keeps BB rating but flips outlook to Negative, citing widening primary deficit and rising debt trajectory.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Negative
Markets
Negative
Country risk
Significantly Higher Risk
Market Reaction
BRL: -0.7%Bovespa: -1.0%
Confidence: 76% · Moderate·2 sources·Updated Jun 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTCOpen Analysis
Brazil·Trade & CommoditiesPrototypeMedium

Brazil soybean exports hit record on China demand surge

Jun 14, 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Fact (example)
May Soybean Exports:16.2M tonsprev 13.8M tons (Apr)· MDIC / Secex

May soybean shipments reached an all-time monthly high, lifting the trade surplus and supporting the BRL.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Positive
Markets
Positive
Country risk
Slightly Lower Risk
Market Reaction
BRL: -0.6% (BRL stronger)Bovespa Agro Index: +1.7%
Confidence: 72% · Moderate·2 sources·Updated Jun 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTCOpen Analysis

Risk Scenarios — Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case
Elevated · 58/100

Fiscal slippage contained; Selic stays restrictive; BRL range-bound.

Trigger: Framework respected with adjustments.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Currency Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Medium
Main uncertainty: Congressional dynamics.
Positive Scenario
Elevated · 50/100

Tax-reform implementation and credible primary surplus path.

Trigger: Surplus targets met; rating outlook stabilizes.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Sovereign Debt Risk
Horizon: 12–18 months
Confidence: Low
Main uncertainty: Political execution.
Negative Scenario
High · 70/100

Framework breach, BRL sell-off, rating downgrade.

Trigger: Material exemptions to spending cap.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Currency Risk, Sovereign Debt Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Low
Main uncertainty: Reaction function of executive.

What to Watch

  • Next COPOM — Selic decision and guidance.Jul 30, 2026
  • IPCA Release — Headline and services inflation.Jul 10, 2026
  • Fiscal Targets Review — Mid-year revision.Aug 2026
  • Rating Review — Follow-up after outlook revision.H2 2026

Risk Comparison

Compare Brazil with another country across overall, fiscal, political, currency, debt, banking, external and regulatory risk.

Open Compare
Platform Risk Score is a structured internal view — not a credit rating. Methodology

Source: BCB, IBGE, Tesouro Nacional · Mock Data