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North America · Developed

United States — Country Risk

Low · 32/100 DeterioratingConfidence: HighS&P: AA+Prototype profile
Overall risk
32/100
Higher score = higher risk
Mock Data — illustrative. Platform Risk Score is not an official credit rating.
Live Macro FundamentalsWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
Current Account / GDP
-3.6%
2028 · imf
Fiscal Balance / GDP
-7.6%
2028 · imf
GDP Growth
+2.1%
2028 · imf
Govt Debt / GDP
132.1%
2028 · imf
CPI Inflation
2.2%
2028 · imf
Unemployment
4.1%
2028 · imf
AI-Assisted Risk Assessment

Country Risk Brief

The United States retains a low-to-moderate overall risk profile, anchored by reserve-currency status and deep capital markets. The primary concern is fiscal: the structural deficit and rising interest expense push fiscal risk into the Elevated band. Political risk is elevated heading into the election, but institutional checks are intact. The most important recent change is a modest pickup in interest costs relative to revenue.

Main driver: Widening federal deficit and rising interest expenseStabilizing: Reserve-currency status and deepest capital markets globallyMain uncertainty: Pace of fiscal consolidation post-election remains uncertain.

Risk Score Breakdown

12 dimensions · 0–100
Fiscal Risk58/100 · Elevated
Sovereign Debt Risk36/100 · Moderate
Currency Risk18/100 · Very Low
Political Risk42/100 · Moderate
Institutional Risk20/100 · Low
Banking-System Risk34/100 · Low
External Financing Risk22/100 · Low
Regulatory Risk28/100 · Low
Social Stability Risk36/100 · Moderate
Commodity Exposure Risk28/100 · Low
Trade Dependency Risk34/100 · Low
Geopolitical Risk46/100 · Moderate
Risk dimension
Fiscal Risk
Deteriorating
58/100
Elevated
Main driver: Structural deficit and rising mandatory spending
Stabilizing factor: Strong tax base and revenue flexibility
Supporting indicators
  • Deficit / GDP-6.1%
  • Interest / Revenue14%
  • Debt / GDP121%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Sovereign Debt Risk
Deteriorating
36/100
Moderate
Main driver: Higher refinancing rates on a large stock
Stabilizing factor: Deepest, most liquid sovereign market
Supporting indicators
  • Avg Maturity6.1 yrs
  • Foreign Holdings23%
  • 10Y Yield4.32%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Currency Risk
Stable
18/100
Very Low
Main driver: Dollar overvaluation could mean-revert
Stabilizing factor: Global reserve-currency demand
Supporting indicators
  • DXY104.8
  • Reserves$245B
  • FX Volatility (1m)7.4%
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Political Risk
Deteriorating
42/100
Moderate
Main driver: Polarization and contested election narratives
Stabilizing factor: Robust institutional checks and balances
Supporting indicators
  • Policy ContinuityModerate
  • Election YearYes
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Institutional Risk
Stable
20/100
Low
Main driver: Episodic debt-ceiling brinkmanship
Stabilizing factor: Independent judiciary, central bank and statistical agencies
Supporting indicators
  • Rule of Law (WGI)1.5
  • Regulatory Quality1.4
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Banking-System Risk
Improving
34/100
Low
Main driver: Commercial real-estate exposure at regional banks
Stabilizing factor: Strong capital ratios at G-SIBs
Supporting indicators
  • CET1 Ratio13.4%
  • NPL Ratio1.2%
  • CRE Loans / AssetsElevated at regionals
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
External Financing Risk
Stable
22/100
Low
Main driver: Twin deficits financed by foreign capital
Stabilizing factor: USD reserve role recycles inflows
Supporting indicators
  • Current Account-3.1% of GDP
  • Net Int'l Investment-72% of GDP
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Regulatory Risk
Deteriorating
28/100
Low
Main driver: Antitrust and tech-regulation uncertainty
Stabilizing factor: Predictable rule-making and judicial review
Supporting indicators
  • Doing-Business Rank6
  • Reg. Change IndexModerate
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Social Stability Risk
Deteriorating
36/100
Moderate
Main driver: Polarization and inequality
Stabilizing factor: Strong labor market and consumer wealth
Supporting indicators
  • Unemployment3.9%
  • Gini0.41
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Commodity Exposure Risk
Stable
28/100
Low
Main driver: Energy-price sensitivity for households
Stabilizing factor: Net energy producer
Supporting indicators
  • Oil Production13.1 mb/d
  • Net Energy PositionNet exporter
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Trade Dependency Risk
Deteriorating
34/100
Low
Main driver: Tariff and tech-export restrictions
Stabilizing factor: Diversified trading partners
Supporting indicators
  • Trade / GDP27%
  • Top Partner ShareMexico 16%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Geopolitical Risk
Deteriorating
46/100
Moderate
Main driver: Multi-front strategic competition
Stabilizing factor: Alliance network and military reach
Supporting indicators
  • Defense / GDP3.4%
  • Active Conflicts (Indirect)Several
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Verified Indicator

Fiscal Risk

Government Debt / GDP
121%
Budget Balance
-6.1% of GDP
Interest Expense
3.3% of GDP
Avg Debt Maturity
6.1 years
Revenue Stability
High
Primary Balance
-2.8% of GDP
Fiscal Policy Direction
Mildly stimulative
Main Fiscal Concern
Rising mandatory spending
Main Fiscal Strength
Reserve-currency funding base
Verified Indicator

Sovereign Debt Risk

Local-Currency Debt
$33.1T
Foreign-Currency Debt
Negligible
Debt-Service Burden
14% of revenue
Refinancing Risk
Moderate
Bond-Yield Trend
10Y at 4.32%, range-bound
Credit Rating
AA+ (S&P)
Rating Outlook
Stable
Recent Rating Action
Affirmation, May 2026 (mock)
Verified Indicator

Currency Risk

Currency Volatility
7.4% (1m)
Reserve Adequacy
Moderate (issuer of reserve currency)
Current-Account Balance
-3.1% of GDP
External Debt
Moderate / mostly USD
Import Coverage
n/a (reserve issuer)
Capital-Flow Sensitivity
Low
Currency Regime
Free Float
Central-Bank Credibility
High
Open currency profile →
Verified Indicator

Political Risk

Government Stability
Stable
Election Risk
Elevated (election year)
Policy Continuity
Moderate
Social Tension
Moderate
Protest Risk
Low
Corruption Risk
Low
Geopolitical Exposure
High
Institutional Strength
Very High
Verified Indicator

Banking-System Risk

Capital Adequacy
CET1 13.4%
Non-Performing Loans
1.2%
Liquidity
LCR 118%
Credit Growth
+2.1% YoY
Property-Market Exposure
Elevated (CRE at regionals)
Foreign-Currency Lending
Low
Government Support Capacity
Very High
Systemic Risk
Moderate
Verified Indicator

External Risk

Current-Account Balance
-3.1% of GDP
Trade Balance
-2.8% of GDP
Foreign Reserves
$245B
External Debt
Manageable, USD-denominated
Foreign Investment Flows
Net inflows in equities & Treasuries
Commodity Dependence
Low
Trade-Partner Concentration
Diversified
Global Funding Sensitivity
Low
Verified Indicator

Regulatory & Institutional Risk

Regulatory Predictability
High
Rule of Law
Very High
Contract Enforcement
Strong
Policy Transparency
High
Business Environment
Top decile
Capital Controls
None
Foreign Ownership Restrictions
Sector-specific (defense, media)
Institutional Credibility
High
Credit Ratings (Official)
S&PAA+Outlook: StableAffirmation · May 14, 2026
Moody'sAaaOutlook: NegativeOutlook revision · Nov 10, 2025
FitchAA+Outlook: StableAffirmation · Mar 22, 2026

Official Rating — separate from the Platform Risk Score above.

Risk Trend — Last 12 Months

  1. FOMC holds rates, hawkish dots
    Jun 18, 2026
    Dimension: Currency Risk · 17 18 (+1)
    Wider rate differential firms USD; modest risk uptick.
    Open Analysis →
  2. CBO updates deficit baseline
    Jun 12, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 55 58 (+3)
    Deficit revised wider on outlay growth.
  3. Election cycle intensifies
    Jun 06, 2026
    Dimension: Political Risk · 39 42 (+3)
    Policy uncertainty premium rises.
  4. Regional-bank CRE stress test
    May 24, 2026
    Dimension: Banking-System Risk · 38 36 (-2)
    Capital buffers absorb stress scenario.
  5. April jobs report — strong
    May 03, 2026
    Dimension: External Financing Risk · 24 22 (-2)
    Labor resilience supports external position.
    Open Analysis →
  6. Inflation print supports patience
    Apr 10, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 53 54 (+1)
    Sticky core services keep real rates restrictive.
    Open Analysis →

Risk Events — Linked Intelligence Prototype examples

United States·Monetary PolicyPrototypeCritical

Federal Reserve holds rates, signals data-dependent pause

Jun 18, 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Fact (example)
Federal Funds Target Range:5.25%–5.50%prev 5.25%–5.50%· Federal Reserve

FOMC kept the target range at 5.25–5.50% and emphasized patience as services inflation cools more slowly than goods.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Positive
Markets
Mixed
Country risk
No Material Change
Market Reaction
USD: +0.4% vs basketS&P 500: +0.3%
Confidence: 88% · High·4 sources·Updated Jun 28, 2026 · 09:15 UTCOpen Analysis
United States·Employment ReportPrototypeHigh

US payrolls beat at +272K; unemployment ticks up to 4.1%

Jun 6, 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Fact (example)
Nonfarm Payrolls:+272Kprev +165K· BLS

Headline jobs strong but household survey shows softening; wage growth moderates to 4.0% YoY.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Positive
Markets
Negative
Country risk
No Material Change
Market Reaction
USD: +0.4%S&P 500: -0.3%
Confidence: 82% · High·2 sources·Updated Jun 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTCOpen Analysis
United States·Inflation ReleasePrototypeHigh

US CPI eases to 3.1% YoY; core services still elevated

Jun 12, 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Fact (example)
CPI YoY:3.1%prev 3.3%· BLS

Headline inflation dipped on energy; core remained sticky at 3.4% YoY driven by shelter and insurance.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Negative
Markets
Positive
Country risk
Slightly Lower Risk
Market Reaction
USD: -0.5%S&P 500: +0.6%
Confidence: 80% · High·2 sources·Updated Jun 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTCOpen Analysis

Risk Scenarios — Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case
Low · 32/100

Soft landing with gradual fiscal drift; rates ease modestly into 2027.

Trigger: Continued disinflation; bipartisan budget extension.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Currency Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Medium
Main uncertainty: Post-election policy mix.
Positive Scenario
Low · 24/100

Credible medium-term fiscal package and productivity tailwind.

Trigger: Bipartisan deficit-reduction deal; AI capex broadens.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Sovereign Debt Risk
Horizon: 18 months
Confidence: Low
Main uncertainty: Political feasibility.
Negative Scenario
Moderate · 44/100

Persistent inflation, tariff shock, and contested fiscal stance.

Trigger: Renewed inflation; large unfunded tax package.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Political Risk, Currency Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Low
Main uncertainty: Political polarization.

What to Watch

  • Next FOMC — Updated SEP and dot plot.Jul 30, 2026
  • CBO Update — Revised deficit baseline.Aug 2026
  • Treasury Refunding — Coupon issuance mix signal.Aug 5, 2026
  • Election — Major fiscal-policy inflection.Nov 3, 2026

Risk Comparison

Compare United States with another country across overall, fiscal, political, currency, debt, banking, external and regulatory risk.

Open Compare
Platform Risk Score is a structured internal view — not a credit rating. Methodology

Source: Treasury, BEA, Federal Reserve · Mock Data