Prototype · Asia-Pacific
🇮🇳 India — Energy
Main source: Coal · Net position: Net Importer · Renewable: 19% · Security: Elevated · Transition: Improving
Updated 2025-06-28
Security: ElevatedTransition: ImprovingEnergy Brief
AI-Assisted Energy Assessment — separated from verified data.
India is the fastest-growing major energy market with heavy reliance on imported crude and coal-fired power. Renewable additions are rapid but coal remains structural. Main risks are import dependence, currency exposure to oil prices and grid reliability. Transition opportunity is large in solar and grid storage.
Confidence: High (82) · Generated 2025-06-28
Evidence: Mock demand data; Capacity additions · Uncertainty: Coal phase-out pace
Energy Balance
Total production
620 Mtoe
Total consumption
990 Mtoe
Energy imports
470 Mtoe
Energy exports
100 Mtoe
Net position
Net Importer
Energy intensity
5.3 MJ/$ GDP
Use per capita
0.7 toe
Demand growth
+5.8% YoY
Production vs consumption — mock historical
Energy Mix
| Source | Current | Previous | Δ (pp) | Companies | Regions | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 54% | 56% | -2 | Coal India | Jharkhand, Odisha | Air quality, climate |
| Oil | 26% | 26% | 0 | IOC, Reliance | Imports | Currency exposure |
| Natural Gas | 6% | 6% | 0 | GAIL, ONGC | KG basin | LNG price |
| Nuclear | 2% | 2% | 0 | NPCIL | TN, KA | Build pace |
| Hydroelectric | 4% | 4% | 0 | NHPC | Himachal | Monsoon |
| Solar | 5% | 4% | +1 | Adani Green, Tata Power | Rajasthan | Land, grid |
| Wind | 2% | 2% | 0 | Suzlon | Tamil Nadu | PPAs |
| Biomass | 1% | 1% | 0 | Various | UP, Punjab | Feedstock |
| Other Renewables | 0% | 0% | 0 | — | — | Early stage |
Oil Profile
Production
0.7 Mb/d
Consumption
5.4 Mb/d
Imports
4.9 Mb/d
Exports
1.2 Mb/d (products)
Refining
5.1 Mb/d
Strategic reserve
39 Mbbl
Main basins
Mumbai High, KG basin
Companies
ONGC, Reliance, IOC, BPCL
Fiscal importance
High (excise duties)
Currency sensitivity
High (INR ↔ crude)
Natural Gas Profile
Production
35 bcm
Consumption
65 bcm
Imports
30 bcm LNG
Exports
0
LNG capacity
47 mtpa regas
Pipeline dependence
Moderate
Storage
Limited
Suppliers
Qatar, US, UAE
Companies
GAIL, Petronet, ONGC
Price exposure
JKM
Coal Profile
Production
1,000 Mt
Consumption
1,170 Mt
Import dependence
15%
Power share
73%
Industrial use
Steel, cement
Main regions
Jharkhand, Odisha
Companies
Coal India
Transition pressure
Moderate
Employment
~500k workers
Electricity System
Generation capacity
445 GW
Demand
1,650 TWh
Peak demand
245 GW
Reserve margin
12%
Reliability
Mixed
Renewable generation
19%
Industrial price
$78/MWh
Household price
$70/MWh
Imports/Exports
Net importer (small)
Constraint
Transmission, peak capacity
Renewable Energy
Solar capacity
85 GW
Wind capacity
45 GW
Hydroelectric
47 GW
Biomass
10 GW
Renewable share
19%
Capacity growth
+22% YoY
Investment
$60B/yr
Main projects
Khavda, Bhadla
Companies
Adani Green, Tata Power
Grid integration risk
Elevated
Nuclear Energy
Capacity
8 GW
Share of generation
2%
Active reactors
23
Planned reactors
10 PHWR + LWR
Retirement schedule
None near term
Main operator
NPCIL
Strategic role
Baseload
Main risk
Build pace
Energy Infrastructure
Pipelines
20,000 km
Refineries
23
LNG terminals
7 regas
Power plants
2,500+
Transmission
470k circuit-km
Storage
39 Mbbl SPR
Import terminals
7 LNG, multiple oil
Export terminals
Products
Bottleneck
Inter-state transmission
Energy Companies
Leading firms across the energy value chain. Mock data — links use existing Companies system.
| Company | Ticker | Role | Output | Importance | Government | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | RELIANCE | Refining, petrochemicals | 1.4 Mb/d | Strategic | — | Moderate | Open company |
| Indian Oil | IOC | Refining & marketing | 1.6 Mb/d | Strategic | 51% | Moderate | Companies |
| ONGC | ONGC | Upstream | 0.5 Mb/d | Strategic | 59% | Moderate | Companies |
| Coal India | COALINDIA | Coal mining | 780 Mt | Strategic | 63% | Elevated | Companies |
| Adani Green | ADANIGREEN | Renewables | 11 GW | Strategic | — | Moderate | Companies |
| NTPC | NTPC | Power generation | 75 GW | Strategic | 51% | Moderate | Companies |
Energy and the Economy
Observed Data and AI-Assisted Assessment shown side-by-side.
| Area | Observed Data | AI-Assisted Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Fuel CPI ~10% of basket | Crude spikes feed through quickly |
| Currency | INR sensitive to oil | Each $10 oil ≈ $15B import bill |
| Trade Balance | Large energy deficit | Energy ~28% of imports |
| Government Revenue | Fuel excise material | Subsidy/excise balance key |
| Public Spending | LPG and farm subsidies | Subsidy bill sensitive to crude |
| Industrial Competitiveness | Higher electricity costs | Power tariffs a constraint |
| Household Spending | Diesel and LPG exposure | Subsidy buffers households |
| Transportation Costs | Diesel-led logistics | Margins squeeze on freight |
| Company Margins | OMCs squeezed at high crude | Marketing margins compress |
| Country Risk | Energy import vulnerability | Diversification underway |
Energy Risk Profile
Import dependency
HighScore 78Trend ■
Driver: Crude imports
Stabilizer: Diversification
Confidence High · Geopolitics
Supplier concentration
ElevatedScore 60Trend ▼
Driver: Middle East share
Stabilizer: Russian discount cargoes
Confidence Medium · Sanctions
Price volatility
HighScore 70Trend ■
Driver: Crude exposure
Stabilizer: Reserves
Confidence Medium · OPEC+
Infrastructure
ElevatedScore 60Trend ▼
Driver: Grid bottlenecks
Stabilizer: Investment
Confidence Medium · Build pace
Grid reliability
ModerateScore 58Trend ▼
Driver: Peak shortages
Stabilizer: Capacity additions
Confidence Medium · Demand growth
Geopolitical
ModerateScore 55Trend ■
Driver: Strait of Hormuz
Stabilizer: Strategic reserves
Confidence Medium · Conflict
Transition
ModerateScore 55Trend ▼
Driver: Coal exposure
Stabilizer: Renewables build
Confidence Medium · Pace
Environmental policy
ModerateScore 50Trend ■
Driver: Air quality rules
Stabilizer: Investment
Confidence Medium · Enforcement
Storage
ModerateScore 55Trend ▼
Driver: Limited gas storage
Stabilizer: SPR expansion
Confidence Medium · Funding
Fiscal dependency
ModerateScore 50Trend ■
Driver: Subsidy/excise loop
Stabilizer: Tax flexibility
Confidence Medium · Politics
Energy Opportunities
Not guaranteed outcomes — directional, mock data.
Renewable expansion
500 GW non-fossil target by 2030.
Grid modernization
Inter-state corridors and storage.
Energy storage
Battery procurement programs scaling.
Natural gas development
City gas distribution expansion.
Nuclear investment
PHWR fleet expansion.
Energy efficiency
Industrial efficiency mandates.
Hydrogen
National Hydrogen Mission projects.
Electric vehicles
Two- and three-wheeler adoption.
Export infrastructure
Refined product exports.
Industrial electrification
Steel, cement pilots.
Energy Intelligence Events
India national green hydrogen tender
2025-06-18 · Policy
Verified Facts (Mock)
- Mock 450 kt/yr allocation
Observed Market Reaction: Renewables developers up on equity markets.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Anchors offtake for early electrolyzer projects.
Confidence: Medium (64) · Capex cost
Currency: Neutral
Inflation: Neutral
Trade: Capex imports rise
Fiscal: VGF disbursement
Sector: Renewables, electrolysis
Company: Reliance, Adani Green
Country risk: Improving
Coal India production target raised
2025-05-22 · Production
Verified Facts (Mock)
- Mock 1.1 Bt FY26 target
Observed Market Reaction: Power price futures eased modestly.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Reduces imported coal need; air quality concerns persist.
Confidence: Medium (64) · Logistics
Currency: Marginal positive INR
Inflation: Disinflationary
Trade: Lower coal imports
Fiscal: Royalty uplift
Sector: Power, metals
Company: Coal India, NTPC
Country risk: Stable
Energy Timeline (12 months)
- 2024-07RenewablesSolar capacity passes 80 GW.
- 2024-09PolicyBattery storage VGF scheme launched.
- 2024-11GasCity gas roll-out 11th round bids.
- 2025-01OilReliance refinery upgrade complete.
- 2025-02PowerHeatwave peak demand 245 GW.
- 2025-03TransmissionInter-regional corridor commissioned.
- 2025-04CoalCaptive coal block auctions.
- 2025-05ProductionCoal India target raised.
- 2025-06HydrogenGreen H2 tender allocations.
What to Watch
Solar tender results
2025-07-15
Adani, ReNew pipeline.
Monsoon onset
2025-07
Hydro and demand impact.
Power tariff review
2025-08
DISCOM finances.
Crude import diversification
Ongoing
Mix shift.
Storage auction
2025-09
VGF tranche 3.
Energy Scenarios
Scenario Analysis — Not an Official Forecast.
Base Case
Trigger: Crude $75–85
Price: Stable retail fuel
Inflation: Moderate CPI
Currency: INR range-bound
Trade: Energy deficit ~$140B
Fiscal: Stable
Sector: Power mixed
Company: Steady
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · OPEC+
Positive Scenario
Trigger: Renewables accelerate, crude eases
Price: Lower power prices
Inflation: Disinflation
Currency: INR firm
Trade: Deficit narrows
Fiscal: Improves
Sector: Renewables
Company: Adani Green, NTPC
Horizon 12–24m · Confidence Medium · Permitting
Negative Scenario
Trigger: Crude >$110, currency shock
Price: Sharp retail fuel rise
Inflation: +150 bps CPI
Currency: INR weakens
Trade: Deficit widens
Fiscal: Subsidy burden
Sector: OMCs hit
Company: BPCL, IOC
Horizon 6–12m · Confidence Medium · Geopolitics
Mock data for MVP. Not investment, environmental, or engineering advice.