🇺🇸 United States — Public Finance
Reserve-currency issuer, high-deficit advanced economy. Fiscal year: FY2026 (Oct 2025 – Sep 2026).
Public finance brief
AI-Assisted Fiscal Assessment — interpretive, separate from verified data.
The U.S. federal position remains anchored by reserve-currency demand for Treasuries, but rising net interest expense and structural defense outlays have pushed the deficit close to −7% of GDP. Revenue growth has lagged spending in every recent quarter, and the debt-ceiling cycle keeps short-term issuance volatile. The fiscal trajectory is sustainable only under stable demand for long-dated Treasuries and gradual policy adjustment.
Budget overview
Mock or official aggregates separated from platform scenarios.
Official / Mock Aggregates
Source label: Mock prototype data. Mock Data.
Forecasts & Scenarios
Government forecast: CBO baseline: deficit narrows to −5.8% of GDP by FY2028 under current law.
Platform scenario range: Platform scenario range: −5.4% to −7.4% of GDP (FY2028).
Scenario Analysis — Not an Official Forecast.
Revenue breakdown
Composition of government receipts.
| Source | Value | Share total | Share GDP | YoY | Stability | Main dependency | Main risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individual Income Tax | $2.58T | 48.7% | 9.4% | +5.1% | High | Wages + capital gains | Sensitive to equity-market cycles |
| Payroll / Social Insurance | $1.69T | 31.9% | 6.1% | +4.2% | High | Employment levels | Aging demographics |
| Corporate Income Tax | $480B | 9.1% | 1.7% | +3.0% | Moderate | Corporate profits | Earnings cyclicality |
| Customs Duties | $95B | 1.8% | 0.3% | +8.4% | Moderate | Tariff schedule | Trade-policy reversals |
| Excise Taxes | $105B | 2.0% | 0.4% | +1.0% | Moderate | Fuel + tobacco | EV transition |
| Other Receipts | $350B | 6.5% | 1.3% | +2.4% | Moderate | Fed remittances + fees | Fed remittances suspended |
Spending breakdown
Composition of government expenditure.
| Category | Value | Share total | Share GDP | YoY | Priority | Purpose | Economic impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Security | $1.61T | 22.7% | 5.8% | +6.0% | Critical | Retirement and disability transfers | Stabilizes household income |
| Health (Medicare + Medicaid) | $1.83T | 25.8% | 6.6% | +5.6% | Critical | Public health insurance | Healthcare-sector demand |
| Defense | $920B | 13.0% | 3.3% | +4.1% | High | Armed forces + procurement | Industrial base + R&D |
| Net Interest | $960B | 13.5% | 3.5% | +12.5% | Critical | Service of federal debt | Crowds out discretionary outlays |
| Veterans + Income Security | $720B | 10.1% | 2.6% | +3.4% | High | Veterans + safety net | Supports vulnerable households |
| Non-Defense Discretionary | $760B | 10.7% | 2.7% | +1.2% | Moderate | Education, research, transport | Productive capacity |
| Other | $300B | 4.2% | 1.1% | +2.0% | Moderate | Various | Mixed |
Tax system overview
Prototype data. Not personal tax, legal or investment advice.
| Tax type | Rate | Burden | Base conc. | Collection | Recent change | Business impact | Household impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Corporate Tax | 21% (15% global minimum) | Moderate | Moderate | High | Pillar Two enacted alongside existing 21% statutory rate. | Cross-border tax planning narrowing | Indirect via wages and prices |
| Personal Income Tax | 10% – 37% bracket structure | Moderate | High | High | Bracket inflation adjustments continue. | Affects services consumption | Progressive impact |
| Payroll (FICA) | 15.3% combined | Moderate | High | High | Wage base indexed. | Labor cost | Direct deduction |
| Capital Gains Tax | 0% / 15% / 20% | Moderate | High | Moderate | Treatment of carried interest under review. | Asset-allocation behavior | Concentrated at top decile |
| Sales Tax (state) | 0% – 9.5% | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Digital-services expansion. | Compliance complexity | Regressive |
| Property Tax (local) | 0.5% – 2.2% | Moderate | Low | High | Reassessment cycles ongoing. | Real-estate carrying cost | Homeowner expense |
Public debt profile
Stock, structure and service of sovereign debt.
Debt holders
Ownership distribution of outstanding debt.
Debt maturity timeline
Annual maturities, interest payments and refinancing pressure.
| Year | Maturity | Interest | FX share | Pressure | Risk | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8.35T | $960B | 0% | High | Elevated | |
| 2027 | $4.90T | $1.02T | 0% | Moderate | Elevated | |
| 2028 | $4.10T | $1.08T | 0% | Moderate | Moderate | |
| 2029 | $3.30T | $1.11T | 0% | Low | Moderate | |
| 2030 | $2.90T | $1.14T | 0% | Low | Moderate |
Public investment
Where government capital is being deployed.
Subsidies and government support
| Type | Fiscal cost | Purpose | Beneficiary | Main risk | Reform pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Transition Credits | $95B | Decarbonize power + transport | Manufacturers + consumers | Score uncertainty | Moderate |
| Agricultural Support | $25B | Farm income stabilization | Farmers | Trade-policy retaliation | Low |
| Housing Assistance | $60B | Section 8 + LIHTC | Low-income households | Funding shortfalls | Low |
| Industrial Support (CHIPS) | $40B | Semiconductor onshoring | Chip manufacturers | Execution lag | Low |
State-owned enterprises
Government-linked corporates relevant to public finance.
| Company | Sector | Govt % | Revenue | Employees | Importance | Fiscal contribution | Fiscal risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USPS | Logistics | 100% | $80B | 600,000 | High | Net subsidy ~$3B annually | Moderate | |
| Fannie Mae | Housing finance | 80% | $32B | 8,200 | Critical | Profit sweep to Treasury | Moderate | |
| Tennessee Valley Authority | Energy | 100% | $12B | 10,000 | Moderate | Self-funded | Low |
Fiscal policy impact
Observed effects versus AI-assisted assessment, clearly separated.
| Area | Observed effect | AI-assisted assessment | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | Fiscal impulse around +0.3pp in FY2026. | Net stimulus is narrowing as discretionary caps bind. | Mixed |
| Inflation | Defense + healthcare price growth above core. | Fiscal pressure marginally upside to services inflation. | Negative |
| Interest Rates | Long-end term premium has widened. | Persistent issuance is keeping 10-year rates structurally higher. | Negative |
| Currency | USD broadly stable. | Reserve-currency demand cushions fiscal slippage. | Mixed |
| Bond Yields | Auction tails episodic. | Front-end supply will keep volatility elevated. | Negative |
| Stock Market | Cap-ex linked sectors outperforming. | Industrial-policy spend supports specific names. | Positive |
| Employment | Public-sector employment growing. | Federal hiring + state grants support payrolls. | Positive |
| Household Consumption | Transfer income steady. | Cushions weakest deciles. | Positive |
| Business Investment | Tax-credit-linked capex strong. | CHIPS/IRA support concentrated investment. | Positive |
Fiscal intelligence events
Structured events with verified facts, market reaction and AI assessment.
FY2027 Federal Budget Proposal
- Top-line spending request set 4.5% higher YoY
- Defense baseline raised by $40B
- Non-defense discretionary capped at +1%
- 10-year yield +6 bps on release day
- USD index +0.2%
- Defense sector outperformed
Budget keeps deficit trajectory wide; markets see appropriations process as the binding constraint.
Uncertainty: Final continuing-resolution path
Debt-Ceiling Suspension Expires
- X-date estimated late October
- Treasury cash buffer drawn to $180B
- Extraordinary measures pre-positioned
- 1m bill yields cheapened 25 bps
- CDS spreads widened modestly
Base case is a last-minute extension; tail risk of brief technical disruption remains low but non-zero.
Uncertainty: Political alignment
Fiscal risk profile
Composite assessment of major fiscal risk dimensions.
Fiscal strengths
Global demand anchors Treasury issuance.
Pensions, mutual funds, banks absorb supply.
IRS infrastructure with high compliance.
Income, payroll, corporate, customs.
Liquidity facilities available in stress.
Fiscal scenarios
Scenario Analysis — Not an Official Forecast.
Current law continues; long rates around 4.4%.
Bipartisan deal trims discretionary; productivity surprise.
Yields drift to 5.5%; recession reduces revenue.
Fiscal timeline
Twelve-month outlook of key fiscal milestones.
- 2026-07Bond issuanceQuarterly refunding announcement
- 2026-08Rating actionSovereign rating monitoring update
- 2026-09BudgetFY2027 budget proposal
- 2026-10Debt ceilingSuspension expiry / X-date window
- 2026-12Spending packageYear-end appropriations
- 2027-02Spending packageSupplemental defense + disaster
- 2027-05Fiscal ruleStatutory PAYGO scorecard
What to watch
Near-term items that may shift the fiscal trajectory.
- Quarterly refunding statement (Aug 2026)
- Congressional vote on FY2027 appropriations
- Debt-ceiling sequencing in October
- Foreign holdings of long-dated Treasuries
- Federal Reserve balance-sheet runoff pace
Fiscal comparison
Compare this country's public finances with another.
Open the Compare page to set up a head-to-head fiscal comparison covering revenue, spending, balances, debt, interest expense, tax burden, debt maturity, FX debt, debt-service risk and rating.
Open CompareAll figures on this profile are Mock Data for MVP prototype only. Not personal tax, legal or investment advice.